CONCERTO Month-3 lock-priority report
TL;DR — Recommendation
Recommendation: Defer — Stage 1b not yet measured (Phase-1 milestone; guardrail ≤4 weeks)
Surviving axes (ADR-007 staging order): (none yet). ADR-008 HRS bundle: hold — surviving headline-axis set < 3 (re-check ADR-008 §Decision).
Per-axis evidence (≥20 pp gap test)
| Axis | Stage | Status | n_seeds | n_episodes | gap_iqm_pp | ci_low_pp | ci_high_pp | gate_pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS | 1a | Stage 1a (rig-only) | 5 | 200 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| OM | 1a | Stage 1a (rig-only) | 5 | 200 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| CR | 2 | Missing | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| CM | 2 | Missing | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| PF | 3 | Missing | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| SA | 3 | Missing | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Per-stage gate enumeration
Stage 1b
Stage 1b gate: deferred — no Stage-1b SpikeRun present.
- AS — Stage 1a (rig validation only; no ≥20 pp measurement)
- OM — Stage 1a (rig validation only; no ≥20 pp measurement)
Stage 2 launch: BLOCKED — Stage 1b not measured (ADR-007 §Stage 1b guardrail: launch ≤4 weeks after Month-3 lock).
Stage 2
Stage 2 gate: deferred — no Stage-2 SpikeRun present.
- CR — Missing
- CM — Missing
Stage 3 launch: deferred — Stage 2 not measured.
Stage 3
Stage 3 gate: deferred — no Stage-3 SpikeRun present.
- PF — Missing
- SA — Missing
Month-3 lock launch: deferred — Stage 3 not measured.
ADR-by-ADR action
| ADR | Action | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| ADR-007 | Hold at Accepted; Stage 1b launch is Phase-1 milestone (§Stage 1b guardrail) | Implementation staging gates; §Validation criteria threshold (≥20 pp). |
| ADR-008 | Hold bundle lock — insufficient evidence | §Decision default headline bundle CM x PF x CR; Option A / Option B fallbacks. |
| ADR-011 | Hold baseline-set lock — §Validation coverage check not satisfied | Baseline-set lock contingent on per-axis evidence for the surviving axes. |
ADR-014 safety-table integration
SA spike not present — three-table safety report deferred to Stage 3 launch (ADR-014 §Decision unchanged).
Open-work flags (ADR-INDEX)
- (b) ADR-007 §Stage 1a / §Stage 1b split. Stage 1b pending; flag remains active until Phase-1 launch (ADR-007 §Stage 1b guardrail: ≤4 weeks after Month-3 lock review).
- (c) ADR-008 HRS bundle composition. Bundle composition pending the surviving-axis set (§Decision footnote c).
- (f) ADR-014 safety reporting. Reporting contract qualified by ADR-008 bundle composition (flag c above) and the PR-A2 conformal-loss instrumentation; per-axis row counts firm up once Stage 3 SA lands.
Provenance
- chamber version:
0.6.0 - git SHA:
b3a5cb2d10d686f60863583fccf85a297fafd928 - timestamp (UTC):
2026-05-17T11:43:12.291751+00:00 - gate threshold (pp):
20.00 - bootstrap n_resamples:
2000 - bootstrap root seed:
0 - per-axis archives:
AS→spikes/results/stage1-AS-20260517/spike_as.json(prereg_sha=29e397a4a012813c58fd4a0c3077ea8c754affc8, git_tag=prereg-stage1-AS-2026-05-15)OM→spikes/results/stage1-OM-20260517/spike_om.json(prereg_sha=9fad74738b56d4e067ea8bb29c60ef9f652b5b68, git_tag=prereg-stage1-OM-2026-05-15)